Stefano Fenoaltea

La crescita economica dell'Italia postunitaria: le nuove serie storiche

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This paper presents new estimates of aggregate production in post- Unification Italy: the first since the original Istat-Vitali estimates of some forty years ago not to incorporate their component series, and to be based entirely on new research. The new 1911-price GDP series incorporates the recent Federico series for agriculture, the author's recent series for industry, and newly derived series for the services that extrapolate the recent Zamagni estimates of their value added in 1911. The new time series for the 11 sectors specified by the original estimates often differ widely from their predecessors. The new aggregate yields a long-term growth rate well above that of the original series, but not as high as that of Maddison's revision. The end-of-the-century acceleration that characterized all the earlier aggregates disappears: total production followed in muted form the long swing in industrial production, which in turn reflected a simple investment cycle.

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