Abstract

This paper examines some conceptual issues about the role of probability, of cost-benefit analysis, and of empirical evidence in informing public policy decisions, starting from the debate between Daniel Bernoulli and Jean Baptiste Le Rond D’Alembert on the question of whether the French government should promote a smallpox inoculation campaign. We identify Bernoulli’s argument as an early example of the use of decision theory and of mathematical modeling as a tool for evaluating social prospects. Then, we explore some of D’Alembert objections to this approach, and we discuss how these criticisms survive to date both in the theoretical debate on foundational aspects of Rational Decision Theory and in the discussion over its adequacy as a model for decision-making under uncertainty.