Abstract

The authors use a spatial autoregressive model to analyse how local areas voted in the 2020 General Election in Ireland. They seek to shed light on the mechanisms underlying the surge in support for Sinn Féin in this election, which marked a structural shift in Irish politics. The analysis relies on an original source of data – the tally – and the authors reconstruct the boundaries of electoral districts using Voronoi polygons. The results suggest that the surge in support for Sinn Féin may have been due to a diffusion process which generated a wave of support, against the backdrop of austerity policies in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The authors argue that it is not possible to provide a convincing explanation of the Sinn Féin surge at the 2020 General Election without simultaneously explaining how, where and when this occurred