Abstract

The relative size of the EU-15 and of the new member States, coupled with their mutual economic and political links, are such that the pure macroeconomic impact of the enlargement on EU-15 growth will probably be positive, but modest (albeit asymmetric across EU-15 countries), while the impact on the new Member States will be positive and significant. The impact on EU public finance will simply be negligible. The impact on EU competitiveness might be significant because enlargement will stimulate competition and reforms. However, this positive outlook on the economic side is mitigated by the outlook on the political side: the Council will lack the governance capacity needed in the EU-25 until a more balanced voting system is adopted. A new Constitution is a "conditio sine qua non" to make enlargement an economic and political success so that a larger Europe can work and act effectively.