Abstract

The analyses of «Report Sud 2017», whose main findings are illustrated by Pietro Massimo Busetta in the paper, show that the recovery phase of the economy, started in 2015, has been strengthened mainly by the improvement of the labour market for a couple of years now. The gap with the Centre-North of Italy remains almost unchanged, but it is undeniable that some progress has been made. Thisis the evidence of the XXXII business-cycle analysis on the economic situation of Southern Italy, namely «Report Sud», presented on May 10, at the University of LUMSA in Rome. The report, through a half-yearly survey on a sample of credit companies running in the area we are considering, wants to make a contribution on what is the real trend of the main economic variables and tries to identify «trends» and differences with respect to national data. In particular, the following elements have emerged from the examination of the sectors under investigation: Consumption - Household consumption grows to a lesser extent than the growth in purchasing power due to rising employment and quiescent inflation. This was reflected in a slight rise in the propensity to save. Investments - Business investments would keep a moderately evolutionary trend for the second consecutive year, driven by increased availability of tax benefits and curbed by excess unused capacity and non-stimulating expectations on the evolution of demand. Labour Market - The recovery of labour demand has not resulted in a contraction in supply, as new flows of inactive population emerged on the labour market, driven by the urgent need to integrate poor household income. Exports - The cyclical recovery signals of Southern and Island economy were accompanied by positive dynamics of export of goods, which were however less considerable than the 2015 figure. Imports - The flow of supplies of goods to foreign markets has, as usual, been affected by the strong presence of crude oil and derivatives (1/3 out of the total), decreasing for the fifth consecutive year. Agriculture - The added value produced by agriculture, after the excellent performance of 2015, has slowed down for the so-called non-fruiting year of some important Mediterranean crop productions. Industry strictly speaking - Manufacturing, strictly speaking, would have shown in the second half of 2016 a slow deceleration of the weak recovery phase already in place in the first part of the year. Buildings - For buildings, the exit from the worst post-war crisis is proving to be slower and harder than expected, for the overlap of a network of curb elements so far not removed. Services - Production trends in the broThe analyses of «Report Sud 2017», whose main findings are illustrated by Pietro Massimo Busetta in the paper, show that the recovery phase of the economy, started in 2015, has been strengthened mainly by the improvement of the labour market for a couple of years now. The gap with the Centre-North of Italy remains almost unchanged, but it is undeniable that some progress has been made. Thisis the evidence of the XXXII business-cycle analysis on the economic situation of Southern Italy, namely «Report Sud», presented on May 10, at the University of LUMSA in Rome. The report, through a half-yearly survey on a sample of credit companies running in the area we are considering, wants to make a contribution on what is the real trend of the main economic variables and tries to identify «trends» and differences with respect to national data. In particular, the following elements have emerged from the examination of the sectors under investigation: Consumption - Household consumption grows to a lesser extent than the growth in purchasing power due to rising employment and quiescent inflation. This was reflected in a slight rise in the propensity to save. Investments - Business investments would keep a moderately evolutionary trend for the second consecutive year, driven by increased availability of tax benefits and curbed by excess unused capacity and non-stimulating expectations on the evolution of demand. Labour Market - The recovery of labour demand has not resulted in a contraction in supply, as new flows of inactive population emerged on the labour market, driven by the urgent need to integrate poor household income. Exports - The cyclical recovery signals of Southern and Island economy were accompanied by positive dynamics of export of goods, which were however less considerable than the 2015 figure. Imports - The flow of supplies of goods to foreign markets has, as usual, been affected by the strong presence of crude oil and derivatives (1/3 out of the total), decreasing for the fifth consecutive year. Agriculture - The added value produced by agriculture, after the excellent performance of 2015, has slowed down for the so-called non-fruiting year of some important Mediterranean crop productions. Industry strictly speaking - Manufacturing, strictly speaking, would have shown in the second half of 2016 a slow deceleration of the weak recovery phase already in place in the first part of the year. Buildings - For buildings, the exit from the worst post-war crisis is proving to be slower and harder than expected, for the overlap of a network of curb elements so far not removed. Services - Production trends in the broadsector of services would be marked by a moderation in the progression observed for the first months of the year. The debate highlighted the policies to be pursued, in particular the lowest conditions to implement the investments from outside the area, that is the only way to bring the employment/ population level back to a functional relationship. adsector of services would be marked by a moderation in the progression observed for the first months of the year. The debate highlighted the policies to be pursued, in particular the lowest conditions to implement the investments from outside the area, that is the only way to bring the employment/ population level back to a functional relationship.