Keywords: Tourism; time series; SARIMA model; Val Pusteria
The paper aims at characterising the flow of tourism in the Italian district of Val Pusteria, examining data ranging from 1990 to 2006. Overnight stays, arrivals and average stays in this area are analysed in order to identify cyclical, seasonal and stochastic components and trends. Two seasonal gaps are recognised by separating summer and winter regimes, while there is no evidence supporting the existence of a structural break. With the use of a SARIMA model, the process generated by flow is identified and the impact and persistence of the demand-side shocks are evaluated. Structural characteristics of time series result in the conclusion that the winter tourism regime is in a growing life-cycle model stage, whereas summer tourism is positioned in a mature stage.