Valentina Reda

Opinion polls in the eye of the information cyclone

  • Abstract

Informations and abstract

Keywords: Opinion Polls; Elections; Electoral Prediction; Bandwagon; Preelectoral Blackout.

Opinion polls are an essential element in any electoral campaign, and the heated debate surrounding their use is just as predictable. Repeated failure to predict results has done nothing to discourage either politicians or newspapers from commissioning opinion polls; in fact, there has been a steady increase in the number published over recent years. This is why it is worth investigating the conclusions that can be drawn from the last round of elections regarding opinion polls and their role in electoral campaigns. This article therefore aims to interpret the 2013 electoral campaign by evaluating opinion polls as a predictor of election results, the extent to which opinion polls affect the major players in electoral campaigns, and the effect of banning publication of opinion polls in the days leading up to the vote.

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