Abstract

China’s nuclear deterrent is traditionally described as minimal, and its No First Use declaratory policy has not changed for more than 60 years. This minimalism has taken the form of a second strike-oriented, by punishment, countervalue-only, deterrence posture. By applying nuclear deterrence theory notions and concepts, the article investigates the early post-Mao period (1977-1985) to test whether the reform and opening up process stood by such nuclear stance. The article confirms that China’s overall nuclear doctrine did not shift towards a more maximalist posture in that time period. Nonetheless, the political-military leadership debated innovative concepts and developed new weapon systems which implicitly involved a step away from the traditional doctrine and a more blurred posture than before. Additionally, the research finds that strategic considerations had a major impact in shaping these nuclear breakthroughs during the reform and opening up period.