Abstract

Epistemology has long adopted a probabilistic model of causal explanation that has attenuated the rigidity of causality conceived according to the classical model elaborated in 1942 by C.G. Hempel This process has been favored by the solicitations coming from medicine and law. In particular, epidemiology has shown the difficulty of identifying a strictly two-way link between cause and effect and suggested that a plurality of causes for the same disease or effects of the same cause should be considered. This new way of understanding causality has also resonated in the courtsrooms where famous trials took place, which, in turn, prompted new analyses. In this context, the concept of risk has played a decisive role. But if the increase in risk is taken as an index of criminal liability, there is a difficult reconciliation between guarantees for the accused and the protection of the victims. The question is not easy to solve and the way in which the prosecution and defense make their own epistemological doctrines, often no longer updated, raises many perplexities