Abstract

This paper analyzes the auctions of modern and contemporary paintings in the Italian market over the period 1983-95. Two main empirical findings emerge: first, the estimated values increase with order of sale; second, the price/estimate ratios are independent of the order of sale. Therefore, on average, the effects that could systematically affect the price/estimate sequence neutralize each other and no profitable trading rules emerge. At the same time, predictable differences in the average price of the paintings are present at the auction level.